Market Adaptive Trading.
The Market Won't Adapt to Us, We Must Adapt to it
Market Adaptive Trading Keeps You From Going Out on a Limb.
Market Conditions Must Drive Trading Techniques and Exit Strategies.
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Trading Systems.
How to Take Money from the Markets, Creating Profitable Strategies. Palmquist uses the results of his extensive backtesting techniques to smash many of today’s popular trading myths and get down to the truth -- while handing you six complete trading systems, including exactly how and when to use them. Each system has been analyzed and tested in various time periods and market conditions using specific rules and various filters, all in order to determine how and when each system is most effective. Palmquist shares all of the research and results with you to reveal the design, development, and testing that goes into creating profitable trading strategies. Click here for more information.
"Palmquist does an excellent job of meticulously validating six trading methods. He thoroughly backs his research with historical and statistical data to stress the importance of context and market conditions. This book gives the trader a real look at the components under the 'hood' and helps the traders to understand how and when to apply the methods to achieve the most optimum results. Very well done!"
--Jea Yu, UndergroundTrader.com
Money Making Candlestick Patterns shows how to effectively use Candlestick patterns, which market conditions to use them in, how volume and price variations effect results, and effective filters for selecting the strongest patterns. Click Here for more information.
Can you know with certainty that your next trade is a winner or loser? You can't. You can only extrapolate probabilities from the current setup and your past results and statistics. The successful market player specializes in certain well defined strategies and also tracks his/her trades extensively and mines the data for information. This is the very essence of Money-Making Candlestick Patterns. And this is exactly why this book will remain a valuable tool on my bookshelf for years to come.
Oliver L. Velez, CEO Velez Capital Management, LLC
The Timely Trades Letter uses the market adaptive trading techniques developed by a full time trader with 20 years of market experience who is trading his own money every day. The Letter includes insightful market analysis, carefully tested setups, and tips from twenty years of market experience. The Letter is not an academic exercise, it is the actual trading plan we use every day. We plan the trade then trade the plan. Rather than using a single technique in all environments we use different scans, setups, holding periods, and exit strategies based on the market conditions. Trading the same way all the time will just give you practice at taking drawdowns. Subscribe today or send an email to sample@daisydogger.com to request a free sample of the Timely Trades Letter.
I took count just for fun of how many newsletters I have used. I can honestly say of the 139 newsletters since 1998, yours is the best, its your buy point that makes your system impeccable. - Dr. William R.
I just was reading it again, I do regularly, because it keeps me focused, what you wrote to me totally changed the way I traded, and I cannot thank you enough. I just wanted to say thank you again. - Alan P.
Using the same trading technique and exit strategy in all market conditions is likely to give you lots of practice at taking drawdowns. There is no single technique that magically works in all markets, no matter what those slick brochures we all get in the mail say. Experienced traders have a 'tool box' of different techniques that have been tested in different market conditions, and select the right ones for the current market.
I have a dozen different scans that I run every evening. There are scans that look for Long and Short Pullback set up's, volume accumulation, volume distribution, and various patterns. I have tested these scans in Bullish, Bearish, and Trading (sideways) Market periods; so I know which ones to use in a given Market environment. These scans constitute my Trading Toolbox. Prior to trading, I analyze the Market to determine which tool is right for the job.
It is the mastery of several different aspects of trading including system development, backtesting, exit strategies, and reading the market, that leads to success. It takes time, and it will cost you something to learn. Mastering the trading profession, like many other professions, can be well worth the tuition you invest. Traders develop their skills by working with someone experienced in the field. You don't become a surgeon, or pilot, or engineer by reading a book then starting a business. These professionals learn by working with someone until they master the techniques, traders should do the same.
Analyzing Market Conditions:
Learning to trade with the Market is one of the keys to taking results to the next level. Looking at Figure 1, it's clear that Long strategies with holding periods measured in Months were not trading with the Market during the 2000-2002 period. There are some Long strategies with short holding periods that worked during this period. There are also a number of Short strategies that worked during this period. Trading with the Market requires one to have a variety of strategies that are known to work in different Market environments, and a method for determining which strategy to use.
Figure 1. NASDAQ Three-year Chart
Analyzing Market conditions is so important that I write down my observations each evening as I prepare for the next trading day. I started sharing these observations with my friends, which encouraged me to focus on an objective look at the Market. It is this process which eventually let to publishing the Timely Trades Letter. The Letter is not an academic exercise, it reflects my trading plan for the current market and is based on 20 years of market experience and extensive testing. If you would like to see my current market analysis and the trading setups I am watching email a request to: sample@daisydogger.com.
I try not to be Bullish or Bearish, I just focus on determining key support and resistance levels, and what these levels imply for trading. If you decide you're Bullish or Bearish there is a tendency to then find reasons to justify your position, especially if you follow the news. Instead, determine what type of market environment it is, and what that implies about which of the tools in your toolbox should be used.
I have found NASDAQ trend lines and moving averages to be effective tools for determining which trading tools should be used. During backtesting I have found that several of my trading systems respond well to limiting Long Entries to periods when the QQQ is above it's 30 day simple average. I also use trend lines on the NASDAQ to determine whether to focus on Long or Short scans as shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2 shows a one-year period where the NASDAQ was basically unchanged. A long-term position trader may have broken even for the year. When the NASDAQ was below the descending trend line I would focus on Short set up's for swing trades. When the NASDAQ broke the descending trend line I began to focus more on Long set up's for swing trades. This is part of the process of selecting the best tool for the job.
Figure 2. Trading with NASDAQ Trend Lines
Figure 2 is a close up of the break out of the descending Trend Line shown in Figure 1. The first ascending Tren d Line after the break was drawn through the lows in early April and late May. As long as the NASDAQ was above this Trend Line, I continued to focus on Long Set up's. The break of this Trend Line in Early August caused me to stop taking Long Trades. A Trend Line break implies a change, which could be a basing period or the beginning of a retracement. I do not begin taking Short Swing trades unless there is a lower low formed after a Trend Line Break.
The retracement of early August in Figure 2 did not form a lower low, so I redrew the upward sloping trend line through the new low as shown on the chart. This new trend line then became one of the filters for determining whether or not to continue taking new Long entries.
When the Market is in a clear trend as shown in Figure 2, I generally use my tools for Swing or Intermediate term trades. When the Market is range bound as shown in Figure 3, I generally focus on Short Term or Swing trades. The pattern set up's for all three types of trading are similar. The Market conditions tell me which type of trading to do, and the type of trading determines the Stop strategy. To see my set up's for the current market email a request to: sample@daisydogger.com.
Figure 3. Range Bound NASDAQ
